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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 28

Houston Texans 10 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 7-K.Fairbairn 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.28 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 28, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 38, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model