4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 65

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(3:49) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.00 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 65, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 23, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP