Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 68

Houston Texans 13 – Indianapolis Colts 14

(:13) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 58 yards to IND 10, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to IND 19 for 9 yards (40-M.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.73 EP
54% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 68, worth -3.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model