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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 55

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(12:19) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to HOU 8, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 13-B.Miller.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.66 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 55, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP