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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 34

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(8:20) 7-K.Fairbairn 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.93 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 34, worth -1.97 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 44, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model