Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 19 at the 68

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(14:19) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 54 yards to NO 14, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 11-T.Lewis to NO 7 for -7 yards (26-J.Robinson). FUMBLES (26-J.Robinson), RECOVERED by TB-39-I.Johnson at NO 7. 39-I.Johnson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.73 EP
76% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 68, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model