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New Orleans Saints

11-5 HC Sean Payton
@
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

5-11 HC Dirk Koetter
Sunday 2017-12-31 · 16:25 ET Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread -6.0 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

NO
60.2%
TB
39.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.128 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • TB defense: +0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.058 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • QB edge to NO: Jameis Winston (TB) +0.096 vs Drew Brees (NO) +0.177 EPA/dropback
  • TB offense: -0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NO 25 18–32
–
TB 21 14–28
Projected margin: NO by 4 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 17

NO

Terron Armstead T Out Thigh
Trey Hendrickson DE Out Ankle
Michael Hoomanawanui TE Out Concussion

TB

Robert Ayers DE Doubtful Shoulder
Devante Bond LB Doubtful Ankle
Cameron Brate TE Questionable Hip
Ryan Russell DE Questionable Shoulder
Chris Godwin WR Questionable Ankle
DeSean Jackson WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 24
–
TB 31

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:47 TD TB (9:47) 66-L.Wester reported in as eligible. 25-P.Barber right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – TB 6
  • Q1 09:42 TD NO 7-P.Murray kicks 71 yards from TB 35 to NO -6. 41-A.Kamara for 106 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – TB 7
  • Q1 02:41 TD NO (2:41) 41-A.Kamara up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – TB 7
  • Q2 05:57 TD TB (5:57) 66-L.Wester reported in as eligible. 3-J.Winston scrambles up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 14 – TB 13
  • Q3 02:48 FG NO (2:48) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 17 – TB 13
  • Q4 14:19 TD TB (14:19) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 54 yards to NO 14, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 11-T.Lewis to NO 7 for -7 yards (26-J.Robinson). FUMBLES (26-J.Robinson), RECOVERED by TB-39-I.Johnson at NO 7. 39-I.Johnson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 17 – TB 19
  • Q4 07:13 TD NO (7:13) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 42-Z.Line for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 23 – TB 20
  • Q4 04:35 FG TB (4:35) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. NO 24 – TB 23
  • Q4 00:15 TD TB (:15) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 12-C.Godwin for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 24 – TB 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 TB 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (14:23) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 46 yards to NO 12, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NO 4th & 4 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (12:13) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to TB 25, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NO 4th & 5 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 76%

    (2:39) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz right end to TB 26 for 4 yards (58-K.Alexander).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NO 4th & 9 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:03) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to TB 13, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NO 4th & 10 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:41) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to TB 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-50-G.Hodges.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NO 4th & 15 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 76%

    (2:48) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 19 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (14:19) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 54 yards to NO 14, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 11-T.Lewis to NO 7 for -7 yards (26-J.Robinson). FUMBLES (26-J.Robinson), RECOVERED by TB-39-I.Johnson at NO 7. 39-I.Johnson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 24 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 86%

    (4:35) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 95 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:41) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 84-C.Brate to TB 17 for 12 yards (25-R.Bush).

    See the full breakdown →