Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 95

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 – New Orleans Saints 24

(1:41) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 84-C.Brate to TB 17 for 12 yards (25-R.Bush).

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP

What Happened

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.90 EP
64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 95, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.25 EP