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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 37

Washington Commanders 7 – New York Giants 15

What Actually Happened

(14:27) 5-T.Way punts 28 yards to NYG 9, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 83-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.75 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 37, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.49 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model