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Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
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New York Giants

HC Steve Spagnuolo
Sunday 2017-12-31 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌨 Snow Spread -5.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

WAS
50.9%
NYG
49.1%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.127 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • NYG offense: -0.166 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Eli Manning (NYG): -0.068 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYG defense: +0.046 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • WAS defense: -0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Wind 16 mph

Predicted Final Score

WAS 21
–
NYG 19
Projected margin: WAS by 2 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

WAS

Ryan Anderson LB Out Knee
Zach Brown LB Out Illness
Ziggy Hood DT Out Elbow
Kyle Kalis G Questionable Ankle
Robert Davis WR Questionable Concussion
Maurice Harris WR Questionable Back
Ryan Kerrigan LB Questionable Calf
Terrell McClain DE Questionable Toe
Martrell Spaight LB Questionable Illness

NYG

Evan Engram TE Out Rib
Tavarres King WR Out Concussion
Sterling Shepard WR Out Neck
Ereck Flowers T Questionable Groin
Bobby Hart T Questionable Ankle
Jason Pierre-Paul DE Questionable Finger

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 10
–
NYG 18

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:57 TD NYG (14:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-O.Darkwa right guard for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – NYG 6
  • Q1 12:48 TD NYG (12:48) (No Huddle) 10-E.Manning pass deep middle to 84-H.Sharp for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – NYG 12
  • Q1 08:02 TD WAS (8:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Bootleg left. WAS 6 – NYG 12
  • Q1 04:53 FG NYG (4:53) 2-A.Rosas 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. WAS 7 – NYG 15
  • Q2 00:04 FG WAS (:04) 3-D.Hopkins 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 10 – NYG 15
  • Q4 14:12 FG NYG (14:12) 2-A.Rosas 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. WAS 10 – NYG 18

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (11:16) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to NYG 18, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 83-K.Raymond.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (4:53) 2-A.Rosas 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 38%

    (1:23) 39-K.Bibbs left guard to NYG 40 for 2 yards (25-B.Dixon).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 7 at the 37
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 52%

    (14:27) 5-T.Way punts 28 yards to NYG 9, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 83-K.Raymond.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (13:09) 9-B.Wing punts 46 yards to WAS 36, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 42 for 6 yards (33-A.Adams).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 10 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 40%

    (5:41) 9-B.Wing punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 13 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:15) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to NYG 32, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 83-K.Raymond to NYG 31 for -1 yards (47-Q.Dunbar).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 14 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (1:55) 9-B.Wing punts 30 yards to WAS 27, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-85-R.Ellison.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 8 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:12) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to NYG 17, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 83-K.Raymond MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYG 17. 83-K.Raymond to NYG 17 for no gain (56-Z.Vigil).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 6 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (:18) 9-B.Wing punts 39 yards to WAS 40, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-J.Crowder pushed ob at NYG 31 for 29 yards (9-B.Wing).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:59) 9-B.Wing punts 51 yards to WAS 6, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-36-R.Murphy.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 9 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (10:51) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to NYG 21, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 83-K.Raymond to NYG 25 for 4 yards (41-O.Peters).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (9:55) 9-B.Wing punts 35 yards to WAS 39, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 9 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 73%

    (6:56) 3-D.Hopkins 47 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 18 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (4:06) 9-B.Wing punts 34 yards to WAS 23, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-36-R.Murphy.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 6 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (2:55) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to NYG 20, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 83-K.Raymond to NYG 37 for 17 yards (56-Z.Vigil).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 95%

    (14:12) 2-A.Rosas 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (12:48) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to NYG 23, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 83-K.Raymond.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (11:26) 9-B.Wing punts 51 yards to WAS 18, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-J.Crowder pushed ob at WAS 29 for 11 yards (43-S.Smith).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 42%

    (8:25) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to NYG 2, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-31-F.Moreau.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 63 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (3:18) 9-B.Wing punts 36 yards to WAS 27, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.