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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 82

New York Giants 15 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(13:09) 9-B.Wing punts 46 yards to WAS 36, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 42 for 6 yards (33-A.Adams).

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.95 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 82, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 40, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP