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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 83

Washington Commanders 7 – New York Giants 15

What Actually Happened

(4:15) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to NYG 32, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 83-K.Raymond to NYG 31 for -1 yards (47-Q.Dunbar).

The Three Options

GO -3.00 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.19 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 83, worth -4.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 41, worth -2.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model