Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 71

Washington Commanders 7 – New York Giants 15

What Actually Happened

(1:12) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to NYG 17, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 83-K.Raymond MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYG 17. 83-K.Raymond to NYG 17 for no gain (56-Z.Vigil).

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.30 EP
64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 71, worth -3.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model