Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 74

New York Giants 15 – Washington Commanders 10

(9:55) 9-B.Wing punts 35 yards to WAS 39, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 74, worth -4.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model