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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 18 at the 57

New York Giants 15 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(4:06) 9-B.Wing punts 34 yards to WAS 23, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-36-R.Murphy.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.41 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 57, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model