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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 66

Washington Commanders 10 – New York Giants 18

What Actually Happened

(12:48) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to NYG 23, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 83-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 66, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 24, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP