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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
New York Giants
4th & 5 at the 5
New York Giants 12 – Washington Commanders 7
What Actually Happened
(4:53) 2-A.Rosas 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.
The Three Options
GO
+2.39 EP
Model's Pick
-
34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.27 EP
- 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 5, worth +0.42 EP
KICK
+2.27 EP
What Happened
- 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT
+0.18 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
