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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Philadelphia Eagles
4th & 1 at the 1
Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3
What Actually Happened
(10:32) 29-L.Blount right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+4.45 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.22 EP
- 36% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 1, worth +1.36 EP
KICK
+2.24 EP
- 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT
+0.33 EP
- Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
