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ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
@
PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
Saturday 2018-01-13 · 16:35 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.5 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

ATL
47.0%
PHI
53.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to ATL: Nick Foles (PHI) -0.213 vs Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.171 EPA/dropback
  • PHI defense: -0.198 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • ATL offense: +0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • PHI on 6 more days rest than ATL
  • Wind 16 mph

Predicted Final Score

ATL 18
–
PHI 20
Projected margin: PHI by 2 Projected total: 38

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

ATL

No players on the report.

PHI

Dannell Ellerbe LB Questionable Hamstring
Sidney Jones CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 10
–
PHI 15

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:08 FG ATL (9:08) 3-M.Bryant 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 3 – PHI 0
  • Q2 10:32 TD PHI (10:32) 29-L.Blount right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 3 – PHI 6
  • Q2 05:46 TD ATL (5:46) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 24-D.Freeman for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-F.Cox]. ATL 9 – PHI 6
  • Q2 00:01 FG PHI (:01) 4-J.Elliott 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. ATL 10 – PHI 9
  • Q3 00:15 FG PHI (:15) 4-J.Elliott 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. ATL 10 – PHI 12
  • Q4 06:05 FG PHI (6:05) 4-J.Elliott 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. ATL 10 – PHI 15

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 8 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 93%

    (9:08) 3-M.Bryant 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 15 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 40%

    (5:15) 8-D.Jones punts 29 yards to ATL 12, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 7 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 19%

    (2:18) 5-M.Bosher punts 36 yards to PHI 14, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (10:32) 29-L.Blount right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 23%

    (7:41) 5-M.Bosher punts 30 yards to PHI 18, Center-47-J.Harris. 50-B.Braman MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ATL-53-L.Reynolds at PHI 18. 53-L.Reynolds to PHI 18 for no gain (38-K.Barner). The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (2:15) 8-D.Jones punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 13 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 19%

    (:55) 5-M.Bosher punts 22 yards to PHI 28, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-40-D.Coleman. PENALTY on PHI-50-B.Braman, Running Into the Kicker, 5 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play. The Replay Official reviewed the running into the kicker ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 5-M.Bosher punts 22 yards to PHI 28, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-40-D.Coleman.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:23) 5-M.Bosher punts 36 yards to PHI 40, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 2 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 16%

    (11:14) 8-D.Jones punts 40 yards to ATL 12, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 7 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 28%

    (6:03) 5-M.Bosher punts 39 yards to PHI 7, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-27-D.Kazee.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 10 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 89%

    (:15) 4-J.Elliott 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 7 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:06) 5-M.Bosher punts 40 yards to PHI 17, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.08 EP
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (6:05) 4-J.Elliott 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 6 at the 58 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:30) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 11-Ju.Jones to PHI 38 for 20 yards (23-R.McLeod).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 2 at the 2 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (1:05) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 11-Ju.Jones.