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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 48

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 6

What Actually Happened

(7:41) 5-M.Bosher punts 30 yards to PHI 18, Center-47-J.Harris. 50-B.Braman MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ATL-53-L.Reynolds at PHI 18. 53-L.Reynolds to PHI 18 for no gain (38-K.Barner). The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.86 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 48, worth -3.15 EP
KICK -2.17 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.16 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -3.18 EP
PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model