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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 54

Philadelphia Eagles 6 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 8-D.Jones punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.61 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 54, worth -2.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 16, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model