Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 50

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 6

What Actually Happened

(:55) 5-M.Bosher punts 22 yards to PHI 28, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-40-D.Coleman. PENALTY on PHI-50-B.Braman, Running Into the Kicker, 5 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play. The Replay Official reviewed the running into the kicker ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 5-M.Bosher punts 22 yards to PHI 28, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-40-D.Coleman.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.13 EP
73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 50, worth -2.23 EP

KICK -1.35 EP

19% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
81% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model