Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 76

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 9

(13:23) 5-M.Bosher punts 36 yards to PHI 40, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.32 EP
58% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 76, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model