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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 52

Philadelphia Eagles 9 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(11:14) 8-D.Jones punts 40 yards to ATL 12, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.87 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 52, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.96 EP
  • 16% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 84% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 15, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP