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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 3

Philadelphia Eagles 12 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(6:05) 4-J.Elliott 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +3.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.12 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 3, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.08 EP