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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 58

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 15

What Actually Happened

(3:30) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 11-Ju.Jones to PHI 38 for 20 yards (23-R.McLeod).

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.93 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 58, worth -2.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 18, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model