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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 15

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 3-M.Bryant 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.42 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 15, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model