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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 2 at the 2
Atlanta Falcons 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 15
What Actually Happened
(1:05) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 11-Ju.Jones.
The Three Options
GO
+3.17 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.31 EP
- 49% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 2, worth -0.10 EP
KICK
+2.33 EP
- 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT
-0.20 EP
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
