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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 15 at the 41

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(5:15) 8-D.Jones punts 29 yards to ATL 12, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.54 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 41, worth -1.72 EP
KICK -0.53 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model