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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 50

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(2:18) 5-M.Bosher punts 36 yards to PHI 14, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.86 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 50, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -2.12 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model