4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 36

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(10:28) 4-J.Lambo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.89 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 36, worth -2.01 EP
KICK +0.19 EP
What Happened
  • 63% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 46, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP