JAX @ NE — 4th & Data

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HC Doug Marrone

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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick

Sunday 2018-01-21 · 15:05 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

JAX

30.6%

69.4%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

NE offense: +0.175 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
JAX offense: +0.042 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
QB edge to NE: Tom Brady (NE) +0.230 vs Blake Bortles (JAX) +0.115 EPA/dropback
NE defense: -0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
JAX defense: -0.088 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

JAX 23

–

NE 29

Projected margin: NE by 6 Projected total: 52

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 20

JAX

Tashaun Gipson S Questionable Foot

NE

Tom Brady QB Questionable right Hand

Alan Branch DT Questionable Knee

Rex Burkhead RB Questionable Knee

Mike Gillislee RB Questionable Knee

LaAdrian Waddle T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 20 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 20

–

NE 24

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 09:25 FG NE (9:25) 3-S.Gostkowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 24th consecutive postseason game with a point, ties Akers for 2nd all-time (Vinatieri 30). NE 3-Gostkowski 32nd career postseason FG, tied for 3rd all-time (Gary Anderson). JAX 0 – NE 3
Q2 14:22 TD JAX (14:22) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 89-M.Lewis for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – NE 3
Q2 07:11 TD JAX (7:11) 27-L.Fournette up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 13 – NE 3
Q2 00:58 TD NE (:58) (No Huddle) 28-J.White left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 14 – NE 9
Q3 10:28 FG JAX (10:28) 4-J.Lambo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman. JAX 17 – NE 10
Q4 14:56 FG JAX (14:56) 4-J.Lambo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman. JAX 20 – NE 10
Q4 08:53 TD NE (8:53) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 80-D.Amendola for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 20 – NE 16
Q4 02:56 TD NE (2:56) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 80-D.Amendola for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 22nd career postseason game with 2 pass TD, extends his NFL record (Favre, 15). JAX 20 – NE 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 30

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 69% p(FG) 76%

(11:49) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 80-D.Amendola ran ob at JAX 10 for 20 yards.
Q1 NE 4th & 13 at the 13

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

(9:25) 3-S.Gostkowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 24th consecutive postseason game with a point, ties Akers for 2nd all-time (Vinatieri 30). NE 3-Gostkowski 32nd career postseason FG, tied for 3rd all-time (Gary Anderson).
Q1 JAX 4th & 8 at the 51

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 26%

(5:09) 3-B.Nortman punts 37 yards to NE 14, Center-49-C.Holba, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.
Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 66

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP

p(convert) 73%

(2:58) 6-R.Allen punts 42 yards to JAX 24, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.
Q2 NE 4th & 11 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(13:21) 6-R.Allen punts 53 yards to JAX 23, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.
Q2 NE 4th & 13 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(5:32) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to JAX 25, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.
Q2 JAX 4th & 18 at the 55

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24%

(2:09) 3-B.Nortman punts 40 yards to NE 15, Center-49-C.Holba, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.
Q3 JAX 4th & 4 at the 36

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP

p(convert) 45% p(FG) 63%

(10:28) 4-J.Lambo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman.
Q3 NE 4th & 4 at the 47

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP

p(convert) 49% p(FG) 35%

(7:39) 6-R.Allen punts 37 yards to JAX 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.
Q3 JAX 4th & 12 at the 92

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(6:15) 3-B.Nortman punts 51 yards to NE 41, Center-49-C.Holba. 80-D.Amendola to NE 46 for 5 yards (30-C.Grant, 55-L.McCray).
Q3 NE 4th & 2 at the 46

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP

p(convert) 60% p(FG) 38%

(4:47) 6-R.Allen punts 37 yards to JAX 9, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.
Q4 JAX 4th & 8 at the 25

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 85%

(14:56) 4-J.Lambo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman.
Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 58

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.45 EP

p(convert) 70%

(12:11) 3-B.Nortman punts 43 yards to NE 15, Center-49-C.Holba, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.
Q4 JAX 4th & 9 at the 62

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(6:30) 3-B.Nortman punts 43 yards to NE 19, Center-49-C.Holba, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.
Q4 NE 4th & 10 at the 45

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 40%

(6:00) 6-R.Allen punts 35 yards to JAX 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.
Q4 JAX 4th & 11 at the 91

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(5:10) 3-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to 50, Center-49-C.Holba. 80-D.Amendola to JAX 30 for 20 yards (94-D.Smoot).
Q4 JAX 4th & 15 at the 43 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 46%

(1:53) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete deep right to 12-D.Westbrook (24-S.Gilmore) [98-T.Flowers].