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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 46

New England Patriots 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(4:47) 6-R.Allen punts 37 yards to JAX 9, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.05 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 13, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP