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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 58

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(12:11) 3-B.Nortman punts 43 yards to NE 15, Center-49-C.Holba, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.07 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 58, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 18, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.45 EP