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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 45

New England Patriots 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(6:00) 6-R.Allen punts 35 yards to JAX 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.36 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 45, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.62 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model