Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 91

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – New England Patriots 17

(5:10) 3-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to 50, Center-49-C.Holba. 80-D.Amendola to JAX 30 for 20 yards (94-D.Smoot).

The Three Options

GO -3.14 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.64 EP
65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 91, worth -5.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model