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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 43

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(1:53) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete deep right to 12-D.Westbrook (24-S.Gilmore) [98-T.Flowers].

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.19 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -1.50 EP
KICK -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model