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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 51

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(5:09) 3-B.Nortman punts 37 yards to NE 14, Center-49-C.Holba, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.93 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 51, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.58 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model