Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 76

New England Patriots 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

(13:21) 6-R.Allen punts 53 yards to JAX 23, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 76, worth -4.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model