4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 7

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 31

What Actually Happened

(6:27) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass short left to 19-A.Thielen for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass incomplete short left to 19-A.Thielen.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.82 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 7, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model