Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- PHI defense: -0.186 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- QB edge to MIN: Nick Foles (PHI) -0.172 vs Case Keenum (MIN) +0.122 EPA/dropback
- MIN offense: +0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- MIN defense: -0.193 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 20
MIN
PHI
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 20 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 32 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:20 TD MIN (10:20) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass deep left to 82-K.Rudolph for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – PHI 0
- Q1 06:42 TD PHI (6:42) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass short right intended for 19-A.Thielen INTERCEPTED by 21-P.Robinson (56-C.Long) at 50. 21-P.Robinson for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Quarterback's arm hit by #56 Chris Long. MIN 7 – PHI 6
- Q2 13:42 TD PHI (13:42) 29-L.Blount right tackle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 7 – PHI 13
- Q2 01:18 TD PHI (1:18) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep right to 17-A.Jeffery for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 7 – PHI 20
- Q2 00:04 FG PHI (:04) 4-J.Elliott 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. MIN 7 – PHI 24
- Q3 10:13 TD PHI (10:13) 9-N.Foles pass deep left to 82-T.Smith for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 7 – PHI 30
- Q4 14:15 TD PHI (14:15) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short middle to 17-A.Jeffery for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 7 – PHI 37
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 PHI 4th & 4 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(8:40) 8-D.Jones punts 44 yards to MIN 14, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels. PENALTY on PHI-18-S.Gibson, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 14.
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Q1 MIN 4th & 5 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(5:05) 4-R.Quigley punts 45 yards to PHI 25, Center-44-J.Overbaugh, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.
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Q2 MIN 4th & 2 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EPp(convert) 60%
(12:07) 4-R.Quigley punts 47 yards to PHI 20, Center-44-J.Overbaugh. 38-K.Barner to PHI 30 for 10 yards (41-A.Harris).
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Q2 PHI 4th & 13 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(9:27) 8-D.Jones punts 41 yards to MIN 15, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.
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Q2 MIN 4th & 6 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 21%
(:38) 4-R.Quigley punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Overbaugh, Touchback.
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Q3 MIN 4th & 7 at the 7Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%
(6:27) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass short left to 19-A.Thielen for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass incomplete short left to 19-A.Thielen.
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Q4 MIN 4th & 2 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 52%
(12:33) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass incomplete short right to 14-S.Diggs [91-F.Cox].
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Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(9:45) 8-D.Jones punts 45 yards to MIN 10, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.