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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 55

Philadelphia Eagles 38 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(9:45) 8-D.Jones punts 45 yards to MIN 10, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.53 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 55, worth -2.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 16, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model