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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 70

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 4-R.Quigley punts 45 yards to PHI 25, Center-44-J.Overbaugh, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.31 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 70, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 28, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model