4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 17 at the 34

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(2:13) 3-M.Bryant 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Overbaugh, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.65 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 34, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 44, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model