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ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
@
PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
Thursday 2018-09-06 · 20:20 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 🌧 Rain Spread 1.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

ATL
44.1%
PHI
55.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to ATL: Nick Foles (PHI) -0.036 vs Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.163 EPA/dropback
  • PHI offense: +0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 22
–
PHI 24
Projected margin: PHI by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

ATL

Ben Garland G Out Calf
Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB Out Shoulder
Isaiah Oliver CB Out Ankle
Josh Harris LS Questionable Hip

PHI

Mack Hollins WR Out Groin
Alshon Jeffery WR Out Shoulder
Carson Wentz QB Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 12
–
PHI 18

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:03 FG ATL (5:03) 3-M.Bryant 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Overbaugh, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 3 – PHI 0
  • Q2 06:12 FG PHI (6:12) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. ATL 3 – PHI 3
  • Q2 02:13 FG ATL (2:13) 3-M.Bryant 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Overbaugh, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 6 – PHI 3
  • Q3 04:41 TD PHI (4:41) (Shotgun) 26-J.Ajayi left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – PHI 9
  • Q4 09:53 TD ATL (9:53) 26-T.Coleman right tackle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 12 – PHI 10
  • Q4 02:25 TD PHI (2:25) 26-J.Ajayi left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 12 – PHI 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%

    (10:55) 24-D.Freeman left end to PHI 2 for -1 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill, 58-J.Hicks).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 4 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (9:20) 1-C.Johnston punts 56 yards to ATL 36, Center-45-R.Lovato. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 41 for 5 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill). PENALTY on PHI-18-S.Gibson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 41.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (5:03) 3-M.Bryant 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Overbaugh, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 18 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (:33) 1-C.Johnston punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 19 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (14:18) 5-M.Bosher punts 49 yards to PHI 40, Center-46-J.Overbaugh, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (6:12) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 17 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 66%

    (2:13) 3-M.Bryant 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Overbaugh, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 8 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:30) 1-C.Johnston punts 58 yards to ATL 11, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-29-A.Maddox.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 8 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (:44) 5-M.Bosher punts 57 yards to PHI 17, Center-46-J.Overbaugh. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 25 for 8 yards (34-B.Poole). PENALTY on PHI-50-L.Reynolds, Unnecessary Roughness, 12 yards, enforced at PHI 25.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 9 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:33) 1-C.Johnston punts 38 yards to ATL 20, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 16 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:22) 5-M.Bosher punts 46 yards to PHI 28, Center-46-J.Overbaugh. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 37 for 9 yards (54-F.Oluokun).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:44) 5-M.Bosher punts 44 yards to PHI 16, Center-46-J.Overbaugh, downed by ATL-30-R.Ortiz.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:35) 1-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to ATL 30, Center-45-R.Lovato. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 36 for 6 yards (28-W.Smallwood; 45-R.Lovato). PENALTY on ATL-27-D.Kazee, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 36.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 6 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (:34) 5-M.Bosher punts 38 yards to PHI 32, Center-46-J.Overbaugh. 37-T.Sullivan MUFFS catch, touched at PHI 32, RECOVERED by ATL-36-K.Ishmael at PHI 32. 36-K.Ishmael to PHI 32 for no gain (50-L.Reynolds).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:42) 1-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to ATL 33, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 14 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (5:04) 5-M.Bosher punts 52 yards to PHI 19, Center-46-J.Overbaugh. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 31 for 12 yards (85-E.Saubert; 36-K.Ishmael). PENALTY on ATL-85-E.Saubert, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at PHI 31.