Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 69

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Atlanta Falcons 6

(1:30) 1-C.Johnston punts 58 yards to ATL 11, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-29-A.Maddox.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.96 EP
61% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 69, worth -3.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model