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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 58

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Atlanta Falcons 6

What Actually Happened

(12:33) 1-C.Johnston punts 38 yards to ATL 20, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.96 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 58, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 18, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model