4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 1

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(10:55) 24-D.Freeman left end to PHI 2 for -1 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill, 58-J.Hicks).

The Three Options

GO +3.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.58 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 1, worth +0.19 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model