Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 80

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Atlanta Falcons 6

What Actually Happened

(1:35) 1-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to ATL 30, Center-45-R.Lovato. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 36 for 6 yards (28-W.Smallwood; 45-R.Lovato). PENALTY on ATL-27-D.Kazee, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 36.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.38 EP
55% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 80, worth -4.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model