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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 3

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(5:03) 3-M.Bryant 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Overbaugh, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +2.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.84 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 3, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP